Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.089184 1.147355 1.207518 1.274513 1.347174 1.423761 1.510799
2026-01-04 0.992799 1.074616 1.162752 1.265226 1.381696 1.510676 1.665312
2026-01-11 0.942660 1.040027 1.147997 1.277549 1.430042 1.605448 1.824857
2026-01-18 0.898861 1.006520 1.128644 1.278904 1.460881 1.676910 1.957073
2026-01-25 0.874772 0.992647 1.129128 1.300962 1.514663 1.776070 2.127193
2026-02-01 0.830642 0.951852 1.094343 1.276874 1.508519 1.798531 2.199029
2026-02-08 0.786857 0.908932 1.054244 1.243081 1.486833 1.798089 2.238354
2026-02-15 0.758575 0.883334 1.033721 1.232028 1.492507 1.832027 2.324578
2026-02-22 0.738452 0.866679 1.023167 1.232522 1.512356 1.884772 2.439307
2026-03-01 0.711765 0.840606 0.999406 1.214348 1.505769 1.900314 2.500746
2026-03-08 0.681083 0.808337 0.966408 1.182353 1.478483 1.884992 2.514739
2026-03-15 0.662790 0.791169 0.952103 1.174377 1.483338 1.914573 2.597238
2026-03-22 0.651867 0.783704 0.950862 1.184919 1.515880 1.987749 2.756031
2026-03-29 0.633912 0.766526 0.936231 1.176532 1.521159 2.021317 2.855308
2026-04-05 0.624713 0.760396 0.935875 1.187591 1.554582 2.098467 3.031635
2026-04-12 0.612471 0.749738 0.928898 1.188807 1.573271 2.153759 3.175775
2026-04-19 0.607719 0.748827 0.934966 1.208590 1.620325 2.255993 3.410876
2026-04-26 0.588722 0.728098 0.913057 1.186986 1.603226 2.254158 3.458728
2026-05-03 0.567683 0.704053 0.885849 1.156641 1.571222 2.226050 3.455404
2026-05-10 0.554600 0.690523 0.872884 1.146706 1.570397 2.249144 3.550007
2026-05-17 0.545620 0.682356 0.867139 1.147151 1.585724 2.299918 3.702318
2026-05-24 0.531622 0.666893 0.850616 1.130807 1.573429 2.302623 3.759587
2026-05-31 0.514230 0.646341 0.826349 1.102004 1.539865 2.266658 3.735421